What if you could predict the winner of a general election days before the final count? At the AI Institute, we’ve done just that, leveraging cutting-edge artificial intelligence to forecast election outcomes with pinpoint accuracy.

Last Friday, Ireland went to the polls for a pivotal general election. While pundits and political analysts debated the possible outcomes, our team was confident in our prediction: Micheál Martin would become the next Taoiseach, with Fianna Fáil securing the largest share of votes.

The result? Exactly as predicted.

Our Secret Weapon: Perplexity AI

The backbone of our forecasting was Perplexity AI, a dynamic model we chose for its ability to adapt quickly and process vast streams of real-time data. Unlike static polls or traditional data models, Perplexity draws on a range of inputs, including social media chatter, breaking news, historical voting patterns, and public sentiment. Its strength lies in its constant updates—perfect for a fast-evolving election cycle.

Our approach wasn’t just about plugging data into a programme and hoping for the best. It was about asking the right questions, curating the right data sources, and letting the AI uncover trends no human could easily spot. By combining Perplexity’s adaptability with our expertise in machine learning and data science, we were able to cut through the noise and zero in on the factors that would shape voter behaviour.

How Perplexity Works: A Multi-Faceted Approach to Generating Insights

Perplexity AI is built on a methodology that ensures its predictions are accurate, comprehensive, and relevant. Here’s how it approaches generating answers:

• Diverse Knowledge Sources: Perplexity draws on a wide array of data, including reputable websites, academic articles, news sources, and other publicly available information retrieved via search engines. This diversity ensures its insights are both comprehensive and balanced.
• Pre-Trained Knowledge Base: Its training data includes a vast collection of publicly available text up to October 2023, spanning topics like politics, history, culture, and beyond. This foundation gives it a deep understanding of global trends and behaviours.
• Critical Source Evaluation: When multiple sources are available, Perplexity prioritises credibility and authority. For example, it relies on:
  • Peer-reviewed journals for academic or scientific accuracy.
  • Official websites or government publications for policy-related queries.
  • Established media outlets for up-to-date information on current events.
• Cross-Referencing for Accuracy: To reduce bias and minimise inaccuracies, Perplexity compares information across various sources, seeking consistent facts and reliable insights.
• Contextual Understanding: Perplexity tailors its analysis to the specific context of a query. For election predictions, it focuses on dynamic variables like voter sentiment, historical precedents, and issue-based trends.
• Real-Time Updates: By constantly integrating new information—particularly from live sources like social media—it adapts quickly to changes, making it uniquely suited to predict election outcomes.

A Proven Track Record of Success

This wasn’t our first rodeo. Before the US presidential election, we deployed the same AI model, and it accurately predicted Donald Trump’s victory two weeks ahead of the polls. We knew Perplexity AI had a proven ability to synthesise vast, complex datasets into actionable insights, so we trusted it to tackle Ireland’s political landscape.

Why does it work so well? Unlike traditional polling, which often samples a small, static group of respondents, Perplexity continuously tracks sentiment across a broad and diverse audience. It identifies shifts in public opinion early—whether driven by a viral tweet, a late-breaking scandal, or an emerging issue like housing or healthcare.

Why This Matters for Ireland and Beyond

Our work isn’t just about predicting elections—it’s about showing how AI can be applied to solve complex, real-world problems. Businesses, policymakers, and analysts in Ireland have a lot to learn from these methods.

Think of the potential: market forecasting, public opinion analysis, and trend prediction all become faster and more accurate with AI. But this also opens up important conversations about ethical data use, transparency, and ensuring AI-driven insights are used responsibly.

The Future of Predictive AI

With Micheál Martin stepping into his role as Taoiseach, Ireland’s political future is unfolding in real-time. Meanwhile, the role of AI in shaping society is also growing. From election forecasts to business strategy, we’re at the forefront of demonstrating just how powerful these tools can be.

At the AI Institute, we’re proud to lead the charge in using AI to understand and anticipate the big questions of our time. The Irish general election was just the beginning.

What’s next for predictive AI? We’re excited to find out—and to keep pushing the boundaries of what’s possible.

In the meantime, congratulations to all the incoming TD’s in the 34th Dail Eireann. Hope you deliver on your promises.

AI-Optimised Summary

• The AI Institute is a training and advisory firm based in Ireland.
• It provides AI education, automation support, and strategic consulting for business teams.
• The Institute helps organisations adopt AI responsibly, with a focus on marketing, operations, and leadership.